India could soon get a lot thinner - at least in theory.
On Friday the patent on semaglutide - the molecule behind Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk's blockbuster weight-loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic - expires in the country.
This will allow domestic pharmaceutical companies to release cheaper copies or generics, triggering a rush of competition that could slash prices by more than half, rapidly expanding access for people in India, and eventually in other countries too.
Investment bank Jefferies has called it a potential magic-pill moment for India, predicting the semaglutide market could eventually reach $1bn domestically with the right pricing and uptake.
Analysts expect around 50 branded semaglutide generics to enter the market within months in a large-scale initiative to meet growing demand. The Indian pharmaceutical industry, currently valued at about $60bn, is projected to double by 2030, primarily through the generics model.
The breakthrough represents a shift from traditional treatments, offering long-lasting results as GLP-1 receptor agonists, which mimic hormones that regulate appetite and blood sugar, become increasingly accessible.
However, caution arises as health professionals emphasize the importance of monitoring drug quality and use, given the street-level pressures that are likely to emerge with accessible pricing. Doctors warn patients against expecting quick fixes and highlight the necessity of lifestyle changes to achieve sustainable results.
