2024 Poised to Become the Hottest Year on Record

The time to act is now, as global temperatures have skyrocketed over the past ten months, making it "virtually certain" that 2024 will mark a disturbing milestone. The European climate service has reported that average global temperatures this year are on track to soar more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels—a critical threshold that underscores the urgent need for action. The anticipated increase is primarily attributed to human-induced climate change, further exacerbated by the current El Niño weather phenomenon.As the world prepares for the upcoming UN climate conference, COP29, in Azerbaijan, scientists like Liz Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society, emphasize the alarming nature of this data. “[This record] sends another stark warning to governments at COP29 of the urgent need for action to limit any further warming,” Bentley stated.Currently, global temperatures have remained unseasonably high with only a dramatic drop in the last two months of the year capable of preventing 2024 from setting a new record. According to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, the year could end up at least 1.55C hotter than the pre-industrial average—the benchmark established between 1850 and 1900, prior to major industrial activities that intensified global warming.This would mean surpassing the previous record of 1.48C set in 2023, marking an unprecedented moment in history as it will be the first calendar year to exceed the 1.5C threshold. Over 200 nations pledged to limit global warming to below this level in the 2015 Paris climate accord, hoping to mitigate severe impacts of climate change. While a yearly breach does not violate the overarching Paris targets, it poses increasing risks for long-term temperature rises.As we navigate through 2024, the El Niño phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, has contributed to this year's warmth. While El Niño conditions have relaxed since April, global temperatures remain elevated. Despite expectations of a cooler period, scientists recognize that greenhouse gas levels continue to climb, suggesting that new heat records may emerge in the future.“The warmer temperatures are leading to more intense storms, fiercer heatwaves, and increasingly extreme rainfall—consequences that are manifesting for individuals worldwide,” warned Ed Hawkins, climate science professor at the University of Reading. To combat these issues, Hawkins highlighted that achieving net-zero emissions represents the only viable strategy to reduce disaster costs associated with climate change.