The Israeli air strike which killed Iran's security chief, Ali Larijani, has removed one of the Islamic Republic's most experienced and influential policy makers at a critical moment.
Larijani was not a military commander, but he was a central figure in shaping Iran's strategic decisions. As secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, he sat at the heart of decision-making on war, diplomacy, and national security.
His voice carried weight across the system, particularly in managing Iran's confrontation with the United States and Israel.
After the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February, Larijani struck a defiant tone, signalling that Iran was prepared for a long conflict. His death, now confirmed by state media, comes amid a broader campaign in which several senior Iranian officials and commanders have been killed within a matter of weeks. This pattern suggests a sustained effort to weaken Iran's leadership structure during wartime.
Despite his hardline stance against the West, Larijani was often described inside Iran as a pragmatist. He combined ideological loyalty with a technocratic approach, favouring calculated strategy over rhetoric.
He remained deeply sceptical of engagement with Western powers, but he was also involved in key diplomatic efforts, including acting as an envoy in Iran's long-term co-operation agreement with China.
At the time of his death, Larijani was in charge of managing three major crises: the ongoing war, domestic unrest fueled by economic grievances, and Iran's nuclear program amid stalled negotiations.
His removal leaves these issues unresolved and transfers them to an as-yet-unknown successor facing an extremely fragile situation. While Iran has shown remarkable resilience, especially in disrupting global energy markets, its airspace remains vulnerable to continued strikes. Any new senior figure will face immediate risk of being targeted.
This leadership void may shift power further toward the military, potentially resulting in quicker military decisions with less central coordination, while the leadership grapples with its fragile succession.
The impact of Larijani's death, therefore, is not simply the loss of a single official; it deepens a leadership crisis that could significantly influence both the trajectory of the ongoing war and the overall stability of the Iranian state.
