France's parliament – deadlocked for a year and more poisonously divided than it has been in decades – looks set to throw out yet another prime minister on Monday.

But the acute sense of drama surrounding this latest vote of confidence inside Paris's Assemblée Nationale is counterbalanced by a despondent consensus that the almost inevitable removal of 74-year-old François Bayrou, after nine relatively ineffectual months in office, will do nothing to break France's political stalemate.

It's a disaster. The situation is absolutely blocked, veteran political commentator Bruno Cautrès told the BBC.

Others have been even harsher in their diagnosis.

Marine Le Pen, parliamentary leader of the hard-right National Rally party, accused Bayrou of committing political suicide.

The prime minister, a consensus-seeking figure from south-west France with a tendency to frown and to bluster, initiated Monday's surprise vote himself, seeking, as he explained it, to shock politicians into agreeing on a way to tackle the country's looming debt crisis.

Bayrou warned there was a high risk of disorder and chaos if parliament failed to back his austerity budget with its aim to slash government spending by €44bn (£38bn).

Yet, despite last-minute discussions, it appears clear Bayrou simply doesn't have the votes to survive this political storm.

The underlying crisis stems from President Emmanuel Macron's controversial snap parliamentary election in June 2024, which backfired spectacularly, resulting in a fractured parliament and a weakened centrist government.

As France shifts politically towards the right, alternative leaders, like National Rally's Jordan Bardella, are gaining traction among the populist segments of the population. Frustration over immigration and taxation is fueling their rise.

The future remains uncertain as Macron's government attempts to navigate through this chaos, with little indication of a breakthrough in sight.