In brief
According to a pioneering study published in the journal Science, the frequency of the most devastating wildfires globally has surged nearly 4.4 times since the 1980s, attributing this increase to climate change and human activities. The research emphasizes the substantial economic impacts of these fires, which have seen 43% occurring in the last decade alone. Regions such as Europe and North America are particularly hard-hit, with researchers warning that without drastic changes, the trend will worsen.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Earth’s most destructive and expensive wildfires are now occurring four times more often than they did in the 1980s due to climate change driven by human actions and increased human populations near wildlands, according to a groundbreaking study.
This study, published in the journal Science, assesses global wildfires not by the area burned, which is the typical measurement, but by the economic and human toll they inflict. Researchers found a significant rise in ‘societally disastrous wildfires’ linked to climate change.
Led by Calum Cunningham, a pyrogeographer at the University of Tasmania, a team of scientists from Australia, the United States, and Germany analyzed the top 200 wildfires since 1980, taking into account inflation when assessing damage relative to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). They concluded that the average frequency of these catastrophic fires surged approximately 4.4 times from 1980 to 2023.
“It is clear that we are facing a major wildfire crisis,” Cunningham stated.
Shocking data reveals that 43% of the 200 most devastating fires occurred in the last 10 years, compared to an average of two such fires annually in the 1980s. From 2014 to 2023, the global average climbed to nearly nine a year, spiking at 13 in 2021. The researchers note a particularly sharp increase beginning in 2015, coinciding with increasingly extreme climatic conditions.
The research indicates Europe and North America are leading in the occurrence of these costly fires. The Mediterranean region, especially around Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, faces severe risk, alongside Western U.S. states such as California where climate conditions are particularly prone to dryness.
The impact of these wildfires is dire; there has been a notable tripling in incidents where at least 10 fatalities occurred in a single fire compared to previous decades. Some of the most notable examples include the tragic Paradise fire in 2018 and the devastating Lahaina fire in 2023.
Previous focus on acres burned is described as a flawed measurement by Cunningham, who emphasizes the need to prioritize tracking economic impacts and loss of human life instead. He argues that fewer but more severe fires, like the Lahaina fire, are often more devastating despite smaller areas being affected.
The study compiles over 40 years of global economic data from sources like the insurance company Munich Re combined with the International Disaster Database, highlighting the growing dangers of ‘fire weather’—hot, dry, and windy conditions that increase fire risks and occur more frequently due to fossil fuel emissions.
Cunningham concluded, “While fires will occur naturally, the frequency and severity driven by human-induced climate change are unprecedented, underscoring the urgent need for us to address climate impacts effectively.”
This alarming report highlights the intersection of nature and human impact, urging immediate action and preparation to mitigate future wildfire disasters.
