Yemen's future hangs in the balance after a dramatic turn of events in the south which have brought Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates into unprecedented direct confrontation and threaten the country with partition.
Both Gulf powers have intervened on behalf of Yemen's internationally recognised government in the country's long-running civil war, but a fracturing of the alliance has seen them backing different rival groups on the ground, one of whom is now pushing to declare the independence of a breakaway state in southern Yemen.
On Friday, the UAE-backed force declared that a war had begun, accusing Saudi-backed ground forces of launching an attack alongside air strikes by the Saudi air force.
Yemen's civil war broke out in 2014 and has plunged the already impoverished country into years of deadly violence and one of the world's worst hunger crises.
At the start of the war, the Iran-backed rebel Houthi movement took control of most of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, from the government. The conflict escalated in 2015, when a coalition of Arab states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched a military campaign to restore the government's rule.
A ceasefire has de-escalated the conflict with the Houthis in recent years and led to a freezing of the front lines.
However, the Saudi-backed ruling coalition – the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), formed in 2022 to unite various anti-Houthi factions - has frayed, while the vast majority of southern Yemen has been taken by UAE-backed separatists, the Southern Transitional Council (STC).
The infighting escalated on December 2, when the STC launched a large-scale military offensive in the east and rapidly took control of territory from government forces, including the oil-rich Hadramawt province that borders Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia condemned the STC's actions as a threat to its security, while air strikes have intensified, leading to casualties on both sides. The UAE has denied involvement in inciting the STC's campaign, but tensions remain high.
Humanitarian concerns grow as violence threatens to further exacerbate the already dire situation in Yemen—a country where millions face hunger and displacement. The future of Yemen remains uncertain as the Gulf powers continue their stark disagreement over the national agenda.
