In brief
The situation around a possible US strike on Iran has intensified, with experts predicting various outcomes. Scenarios include targeted strikes leading to regime change or moderation in Iranian policies, potential retaliation against US forces, or even chaos and a power vacuum in the region. This exploration of seven different scenarios provides insight into the complex geopolitical implications of military action.
What could happen if the US strikes Iran? Here are seven scenarios
10 hours agoFrank Gardner, Security correspondentThe US appears poised to strike Iran within days. While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is not. If no last-minute deal can be reached with Tehran and President Donald Trump decides to order US forces to attack, what are the possible outcomes?
1. Targeted, surgical strikes, minimal civilian casualties, a transition to democracy
US air and naval forces would conduct limited, precision strikes against military bases of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), potentially leading to a regime change. This optimistic scenario, however, has risks inspired by past interventions that did not achieve stability.
2. Regime survives but moderates its policies
In this scenario, swift US action leads the current regime to remain in power but moderate its policies, curbing support for militias and halting nuclear ambitions. However, such moderation seems unlikely given the Islamic Republic's long-standing defiance.
3. Regime collapses, replaced by military rule
Given the regime's unpopularity, a collapse followed by military rule seems a strong possibility, where internal stability remains a goal despite mass protests over the years.
4. Iran retaliates by attacking US forces and neighbors
Iran has explicitly warned of retaliation, which might involve strikes against US military bases and allied nations in the region, emphasizing the tension between military might and vulnerability among Gulf Arab states.
5. Iran retaliates by laying mines in the Gulf
Mining the Strait of Hormuz poses a significant threat to global shipping, as Iran has the capability to deploy mines quickly, leading to severe implications for world oil supplies and prices.
6. Iran retaliates, sinking a US warship
There is a possibility of a "swarm attack" from Iran utilizing drones and fast boats, which could overwhelm US naval defenses, leading to significant embarrassment for the US.
7. Regime collapses, replaced by chaos
In the wake of regime collapse, chaos and civil unrest could erupt, leading to a humanitarian crisis that no regional power desires, sending shockwaves throughout the Middle East and beyond.
