PHOENIX — As Sandra Ramirez watched footage of immigration officers cracking down on migrants over the past year, she knew her 2024 vote for Donald Trump was a mistake. 'There are a lot of people who are being harassed for the color of their skin, and that’s not right,' said the Phoenix resident, breaking from her family's Democratic voting tradition. 'I’ll never go Republican again.'

Trump made significant inroads with Latino voters during the 2024 election, earning 43% of the Latino vote nationally compared to 35% in 2020. This shift propelled him to a second term, but new polling suggests that support is unraveling. According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in April 2026, Trump's approval among Latino voters fell from 93% at the beginning of his second term to 66% — a dramatic drop.

The erosion in support has political ramifications in swing states like Arizona, where Latinos make up a third of Maricopa County's population. One in four residents there is an immigrant, and the county encompasses Phoenix and its suburbs. 'With the inflation and the cost of living and the gasoline and the wars, I don’t know if they can afford to be a Trump Republican,' said former Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, who signed Arizona's controversial immigration law SB1070 in 2010.

In south Phoenix, the divisions are stark. At a bustling street fair near a Catholic church, Albert Rodriguez, a tattoo artist, recalled once supporting Trump but now regrets his vote. 'He promised to go after immigrants who were criminals, but instead Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents have been hitting the paleta man — ordinary people selling frozen treats,' Rodriguez said. 'Big time, I regret it.'

Yet Ronnie Martinez, an Army veteran, supports Trump's border security efforts. 'The border is only a hop, skip and a jump to our south. And I don’t want illegal alien criminals coming from Guatemala, Venezuela, Central America,' he said. Martinez criticized ICE for arresting people in front of children but defended officers for 'doing the best they could in difficult situations.' He also cited economic benefits, including the removal of taxes on tips and overtime.

The political stakes are high as Republicans prepare for midterms. In Arizona, Democrats have already benefited from decades of organizing among Latino voters, flipping the state's government. Both senators and top state officials are now Democrats. 'Winning back some of the Latinos who shifted to Trump will be crucial to the reelection prospects of Governor Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, and Attorney General Kris Mayes,' said political analyst María González.

The shift in Latino sentiment parallels Arizona's history. The 2010 SB1070 law, which required police to check immigration status, and Sheriff Joe Arpaio's raids in Latino communities created a 'laboratory' for the national enforcement strategies now being implemented, said activist Salvador Reza. Arpaio's controversial tactics — including traffic stops targeting Latino drivers and mass raids — were condemned in federal court rulings and led to his eventual pardon by Trump.

Economic pressures further compound the political challenge. Earl Wilcox, a Phoenix restaurant owner who hosted Biden during his 2024 Latino outreach tour, noted the impact of 'affordability issues and immigration enforcement.' 'I don’t think the Republican Party will have the support it did the second time around,' he said, 'and I think it started with the raids.'

With the midterms approaching, the question remains: Will Trump's administration reverse course to retain Latino voters, or will the aggressive enforcement policies and economic strains permanently alienate this key demographic? In the competitive swing state of Arizona, the answer could reshape the political landscape for years to come.}