Democrats are expected to win a hollow House majority in 2026, but the party’s prospects for 2028 look far less certain. Now the biggest hurdle is redistricting: a process in which the GOP has taken a decisive lead in recent years, notably with the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down a critical provision of the Voting Rights Act that protected minority‑friendly districts. That ruling paved the way for Republican state legislatures to eliminate at least three majority‑Black seats in the South that Democrats currently occupy.



For a political party to gain a seat in November, it must win the first major vote of the election cycle coupled with a backlash against the current president’s party. In 2018, when President Trump had his first midterm, the Democrats added 40 seats. Momentum suggests Democrats could again outperform Republicans when voters react to the incumbent office, but regaining a House majority in 2028 will require a far bigger assault on the grid, something that GOP lawmakers have been honing for a decade.



New Census, Fresh Redistricting" style=font-weight:bold;>The 2030 Census Will Set the Stage" style=font-weight:bold;>and Will Further Shift Power Away from Democrats


After the 2030 census allocation, seats will be assigned to those states that grew the fastest. Those states are predominantly GOP‑controlled, and they could pull up to ten seats from their Democratic heartlands like California and New York. That extra advantage reinforces the GOP’s power in the House and could put the next 2028 election into a very tight contest.



John Bisogano, the executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, lamented that the prospect of a new census “makes me even more stressed to ban partisan gerrymandering at the federal level.”'



Which States Show Promise for Democrats?" style=font-weight:bold;>The Looming Constitutional and Legislative Challenges


Republicans have a number of legal hoops to navigate, too. In Florida, that state’s new map rides on a conservative majority court that removed the state’s prohibition on partisan gerrymandering. Democrats, by contrast, face a far more complex landscape of constitutional amendments and partisan politics. Only Illinois and Oregon offer perhaps a clearer path to a redesigned map without legal blockers.



In Colorado, New York, and New Jersey, Democrats stand to carve out close‑to‑double–digit gains – but only if they can overturn an existing constitutional agreement that keeps a working independent redistricting commission in place. Washington state offers Democrats a chance only if they win a two‑thirds majority of the legislature in the upcoming November elections, a highly ambitious target.



Washington also might create a strategic advantage by winning certain state legislature seats that would put redistricting control in states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin into Democratic hands.



Actions Taken to Overcome Redistricting Reforms" style=font-weight:bold;>Past Efforts and Current Movements


In Maryland, Democrats have moved to place a constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would give them permission to abolish the state’s single Republican House seat in 2028. In California, a ballot measure that embraces a new map to gain up to five seats won the vote, while a similar measure in Virginia passed less comfortably but remains a firm target for 2028.



In Washington, the Democrats’ only car under the gerrymandering behemoth is the legal turnout that would require them to win a two‑thirds majority of the Legislature. The chance is remote, but those who are in the state legislative races are hoping to secure their influence over district maps that will also affect states such as Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.



Why Democrats Are Taking Gills" style=font-weight:bold;>The Repercussions of the GOP’s Republican Redistricting Push


Colorado has become a bellwether for the conflict over redistricting. Republicans took control of the state’s legislature in 2010 and used their majority to redraw congressional districts in several other states, grading them in favor of their party. Democrats replied by creating a bipartisan commission and eventually adopted it in 2018 to keep districts nonpartisan. Today both Republican and Democratic gubernatorial candidates have called for re‑establishing a Commission that can impair partisan consulting. Former President Barack Obama, who once championed the commission, has since shifted and urged a sweeping gerrymandering push across the United States.



Harvard law professor Nicholas Stephanopolous sees the GOP’s push as a direct threat for Democrats: “I think they’re going to move heaven and earth to respond.”  



For Democrats to beat a resurgent Republican gerrymandering machine they will need to actually out‑strategize, moving far beyond simple partisan opposition to any rule changes. As the 2030 census could create Republican advantages that are not just temporary, the path ahead is even more treacherous.



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Associated Press writer Scott Bauer in Madison, Wisconsin, contributed to this report.