Until January, polls indicated that the Conservative Party would easily reclaim power from the long-standing Liberal Party in this year’s election. However, recent shifts in circumstance have altered that viewpoint. The shocking resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, paired with President Trump’s aggressive trade war, has significantly impacted the political landscape in Canada.

Trump's trade war has seen him impose tariffs on critical Canadian exports, notably a 25 percent tariff on automobiles, aluminum, and steel. This adds to the existing strain under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), complicating trade for Canada. In response to these tariffs, which threaten an economic imbalance, Canada instituted retaliatory tariffs that are projected to generate substantial revenue.

Since taking office in March, Prime Minister Mark Carney has implemented additional tariffs, ensuring an even more competitive stance in global trade. Despite these tensions, Canadian auto manufacturers that operate at assembly stations within the country can still import American-made vehicles without incurring extra duties, allowing some level of economic stability.

In summary, the intertwining of leadership changes, notably Trudeau's departure, with the specter of U.S. tariffs has created an unpredictable political landscape as Canada moves closer to its elections.