In the wake of the tragic floods in Texas, debate has intensified over whether staffing reductions at the National Weather Service (NWS) due to the Trump administration's cuts have hindered emergency responses. Senator Chris Murphy and other Democratic lawmakers have suggested that decreased workforce levels at meteorological offices may have impaired the ability to issue timely warnings about the impending threat, asserting that "accurate weather forecasting helps avoid fatal disasters."
However, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt countered these claims, stating, "These offices [of the NWS] were well-staffed... so any claims to the contrary are completely false." Analysis by BBC Verify reveals that while NWS has experienced staffing reductions, especially under initiatives aimed at efficiency that began in January, the flood forecasting for Texas was still adequate according to climate experts.
Under the Trump administration, a proposed 25% cut to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) budget—which includes funding for the NWS—will take effect in the 2026 fiscal year. Consequently, the current staffing concerns do not stem from these proposed cuts. Despite this, reports indicate a total loss of around 600 employees from the NWS, resulting in vacancy rates as high as 20% at some offices.
Experts agreed that while NWS was relatively equipped for the Texas flood situation, high levels of localized rainfall posed challenges for even the best-prepared teams. "The forecasts and warnings all played out in a normal manner,” said Avantika Gori, a civil and environmental engineering professor. Meanwhile, a former NOAA climate scientist noted that while staffing issues were present, they did not directly contribute to failure in emergency notification processes.
Nevertheless, some specialists have raised concerns about local NWS offices' capabilities. Vacancies at the San Antonio and San Angelo offices may have hindered effective communication with emergency services; for instance, these offices lacked certain positions critical for relaying urgent weather updates. Despite this, the NWS stated that additional forecasters had been deployed during the severe weather event, ensuring that all warnings were issued on time.
Adding to the concern, there are reports of reduced weather balloon launches, which are essential for gathering atmospheric data necessary for accurate forecasting. While it is true that some launches nationwide have been cut back, examinations show that the Texas area in question maintained its regular weather balloon operations leading up to the floods.
As investigations continue, it remains to be seen how cuts have reshaped the National Weather Service and whether these changes will impact future disaster preparedness and response capabilities in the state and beyond.
