The planet has taken a significant stride towards breaching the critical 1.5C global warming threshold, according to recent data released by the European Copernicus climate service. This announcement marks 2024 as not only the warmest year recorded but also the first calendar year indicating temperatures that exceed the 1.5C limit, a target that world leaders committed to in a decade-long effort to mitigate climate change's impacts.
While crossing the 1.5C threshold does not signify that the international goal is irrevocably lost—this target is based on long-term averages over decades—evidence suggests that fossil fuel emissions continue to accelerate atmospheric warming. In his New Year message, UN chief António Guterres characterized the consistent rise in temperature as a clear signal of “climate breakdown,” urging countries to take immediate action to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 2025.
Recent data reveals that global average temperatures in 2024 hover around 1.6C above pre-industrial levels, a worrying increase from 2023's record. The past decade stands as the warmest in history, and new reports from various climate organizations—including the Met Office and NASA—are expected to confirm the record heat for 2024. Significant contributors to this rise include human-induced emissions, especially carbon dioxide, now at critically high levels, alongside natural phenomena like El Niño, which recently exerted additional warming.
Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of Copernicus, emphasized that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are the primary drivers of climatic changes observed. She highlighted that although natural weather patterns play a role, the persistent high levels of greenhouse gases are paramount.
Since the attainment of the 1.5C limit became a focal point of climate discussions from the Paris Agreement in 2015, vulnerable nations view it as pivotal for survival. A UN report from 2018 details the stark differences between the impacts of a 1.5C rise versus a 2C rise, the latter leading to exacerbated risks like intense heat waves, rising sea levels, and loss of biodiversity.
Myles Allen from the University of Oxford noted the challenges in forecasting when the long-term 1.5C threshold would actually be crossed, although current projections suggest it could happen by the early 2030s. He stresses that every fraction matters as climate impacts become progressively severe with each degree of temperature increase.
The intensity of extreme weather events noted across the globe in 2024, such as intense heatwaves in West Africa, droughts in South America, and severe storms impacting North America, showcase the immediate consequences of climate change linked to rising temperatures. Experts make it clear that conditions conducive to disasters like the wildfires currently ravaging Los Angeles are becoming more frequent in our warming world.
The observed record-setting temperatures in 2024 weren't entirely unexpected due to the lingering effects of El Niño and consistent human-driven warming. However, the extent of the rise has caused concern among scientists, who now fear a potential acceleration of warming. Researchers are exploring various theories to comprehend the ‘extra’ warmth observed since 2023, ranging from changes in cloud cover to prolonged ocean heat.
While uncertainties about the trends exist, the consensus remains that humans hold the power to influence future climate scenarios. Dr. Hausfather asserts that even if the 1.5 degrees target becomes unattainable, efforts to limit warming to levels like 1.6C or 1.7C this century could significantly curtail the more dire consequences of climate change, proving vital in the face of ongoing fossil fuel combustion.
