In brief
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography reported annual consumer price inflation at 3.75% in October, slightly above the 3.57% registered a year earlier. Core inflation edged up to 3.80%, driven by sharp increases in electricity tariffs, airfares and tomato prices, yet the figures remain within Bank of Mexico’s 3% ± 1% target range.
In Mexico City, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography released data on Monday showing that the country’s annual consumer price index climbed to 3.75 percent in October, a rise that will shape the cost of living for millions of households across the nation.
The monthly core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items, rose 0.34 percent from September and was 3.80 percent year‑on‑year, slightly above the 3.78 percent predicted by financial analysts, according to the institute’s bulletin.
The figure is backed by a 0.65 percent jump in the overall CPI from the previous month, up from 0.36 percent in October 2025, while the annual headline rate moved up from 3.57 percent a year earlier.
Analysis of the price movements points to three major contributors. Electricity tariffs increased 18.51 percent, airfares surged 26.36 percent, and tomato prices climbed 9.68 percent. A trading‑economics report noted that utilities costs—at 3.60 percent—were among the strongest drivers in October.
Banamex highlighted that this marked the largest monthly headline inflation increase since 2021.
We expect annual headline inflation to reach 3.9 percent and core inflation 3.7 percent by the end of 2026, while maintaining our 2027 forecasts for both measures at 3.9 percent,
The rise keeps both headline and core rates comfortably inside the Bank of Mexico’s 3 percent ± 1 percent policy target, according to the institute.
Financial forecasters point to several upside risks that could lift inflation higher. They include the spill‑over of recent minimum‑wage hikes into other wage categories, stronger El Niño weather conditions that might pressure farm inputs, and a possible jump in international fertilizer costs affecting fruit and vegetable prices.
Conversely, the rate of currency depreciation could pass through non‑food items, adding to price pressures, analysts noted.
Overall, the latest data suggest the economy is gaining momentum, but policymakers will need to monitor the evolving risks as the year moves toward its end.
