TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — Tensions in Eastern Europe are once again on the rise as Russia and Belarus begin their major joint military exercises, dubbed ‘Zapad 2025,’ in Belarus starting Friday, running until September 16. This marks a significant moment, recalling the 2022 exercises shortly before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine.
Approximately 13,000 troops were initially expected to participate; however, the Belarusian Defense Ministry has since announced a reduction. Official reports indicate that the drills will simulate scenarios including defense against an attack, aerial bombardments, and sabotage operations.
Concern regarding these exercises has surged, especially among Ukraine and its neighboring allies—Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania—following previous incursions that saw Russian forces enter Ukraine through Belarus. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry described the exercises as detrimental to peace efforts initiated by the United States.
In additional recent escalations, Polish reports noted the downing of multiple Russian drones, which crossed into its territory—an incident that has heightened anxieties regarding a potential deliberate provocation from Belarus and Russia.
As the exercises proceed, several NATO members are responding with their own military activities to reassure national security, particularly in sensitive areas like the Suwalki Gap, a critical land corridor separating Belarus from Kaliningrad. Meanwhile, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko attempts to signal a willingness to improve relations with the West amid his longstanding alliance with Moscow.
Despite official narratives downplaying the scale and aggressive nature of these military maneuvers, security analysts warn that the potential for further conflict remains high, particularly given the ongoing war in Ukraine and the historical context of Russian military posturing in the region.
