New violence has erupted in Ethiopia’s northern region of Tigray, pitting the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) against the national army. Residents, still reeling from a brutal two‑year war that ended in 2022, fear a return to full‑scale conflict. Panic buying has surged, and internet and phone services have become unreliable, making it difficult for people to access cashless payments in a country where ATMs no longer work.
These clashes followed months of deteriorating relations between the federal government and the TPLF. The 2022 Pretoria Agreement ended the war, but unresolved issues over western Tigray, disarmament, and governance kept tensions high. Both sides blame the other for the current escalation, with the TPLF claiming a federal offensive and the government alleging Tigrayan forces seized airports and attacked first.
Western Tigray remains a flashpoint. The TPLF wants the territory back and displaced Tigrayon refugees to return, while the government seeks a referendum to decide the region’s status. This dispute has drawn in Amhara’s Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army, who joined the TPLF in a new Alliance for Survival aimed at ousting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The government calls the alliance a destabilising threat and accuses Eritrea of supporting armed groups, a claim Eritrea denies. Eritrea, once a partner in the 2020 war, now disputes control of the southern port city of Assab, heightening tensions over Red Sea access.
The African Union is pressing for an immediate ceasefire and direct talks, calling on former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to intervene. The UN and the IGAD have urged a pause in fighting and a return to dialogue, but low trust and new alliances complicate the path to peace.
Reports indicate the federal forces are using drones to target towns, with civilians claiming school buildings seen by the government as military bases were hit. The TPLF is also reportedly recruiting young men to bolster its ranks. The risk of the conflict spreading to neighboring Afar, Amhara and Oromia provinces remains high, and the AU has warned bordering countries against actions that could worsen the crisis.
As the fighting continues, the international community watches closely, hoping mediation can prevent the Horn of Africa from slipping back into widespread war.
