US President Donald Trump has indicated that he may send troops to seize control of Iran's key oil export terminal at Kharg Island in the northern Gulf. So what's behind this, how would it work and what are the risks?
Kharg Island has long been Iran's chief outlet for its oil exports. The island sits offshore with waters deep enough to load product onto tankers known as Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), which can hold around two million barrels. Around 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through Kharg.
During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, it was frequently bombed by the Iraqi Air Force, and on 13 March this year the US struck what it said were 90 military targets on the island, though it spared the oil infrastructure.
If the US does decide to invade Kharg Island, it would most likely be a temporary measure intended to put pressure on Iran by cutting off its fuel exports until it relinquished its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's busiest oil shipping lanes - and conceded to Washington's demands.
Given the resilience and defiance of the Iranian regime, it is highly questionable whether this would work. The speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has warned that his country's forces would rain down fire on any invading US forces. Iran is believed to have reinforced its defenses on the island, including with surface-to-air missile batteries.
Iran has also accused the US of duplicity by proposing peace talks at the same time as dispatching troops to the region. These forces are made up of nearly 5,000 US Marines and around 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, raising widespread speculation that they could potentially be used to seize and hold Kharg.
The US Marines would deploy from ships equipped with Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft and Landing Craft Air Cushioned (LCAC) for making amphibious landings. However, those ships would have to traverse the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz and navigate past hidden Iranian drone and missile launch sites.
Any assault, whether by air or sea, is expected to face anti-personnel mines and swarms of drones. While it is almost certain that the US force would prevail due to its overwhelming military strength, achieving this victory could come at a high cost of casualties. Furthermore, the US would be challenged with holding the territory amidst continuous bombardment from the Iranian mainland.
A comparable situation can be seen with Ukraine's Snake Island, which Russia seized but was subsequently contested by Ukraine. Similarly, a lengthy US occupation of Iran's territory would likely be unpopular back in the US, including among President Trump's supporters who elected him partly on the promise of avoiding such conflicts.
Finally, the strategic value of Kharg Island is underscored by the potential for a deception plan, as the US may be considering alternatives that include other islands in the Gulf, reinforcing the complexity of the immediate geopolitical landscape.
