WASHINGTON (AP) — This summer's debate over significant tax breaks and spending cuts has brought intense scrutiny on the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), facing accusations of being notorious for getting it wrong from Speaker Mike Johnson and being labeled very hostile by President Donald Trump.
Despite criticism, CBO Director Phillip Swagel maintains his team’s mission: providing unbiased, nonpartisan analysis to inform Congress and the public. Swagel, appointed in 2019, draws from a wealth of experience in various government roles in both Republican and Democratic administrations.
In a recent interview, he highlighted the challenges facing the CBO as the economy undergoes significant changes, making predictions more difficult. Tariffs introduced under Trump’s administration have completely shifted economic models, creating uncertainty around their long-term impacts.
The CBO projects that tariffs could reduce the national deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade, even as they contribute to higher consumer prices and inflation initially. Swagel states these inflationary effects are expected to be temporary.
Swagel also discussed the complexities of immigration policy, asserting that while immigrants contribute positively to GDP, they can simultaneously strain local resources and services. The CBO estimates that Trump's aggressive immigration policies could lead to the removal of approximately 320,000 individuals over the next decade, impacting demographic projections.
As entitlement programs face looming insolvency dates, Swagel believes it is essential for decision-makers to recognize the importance of these issues without the pressure of an imminent crisis. He emphasized the CBO's essential role in supplying factual data to lawmakers, stressing their commitment to providing clear assessments without political bias.
We're not telling Congress what to do or passing judgment on laws, Swagel said. Our mission is to clarify costs and effects, ensuring the political process is informed by accurate data.
