Impending Expiration of US-Russia Nuclear Treaty Sparks Arms Race Concerns

Thu Feb 05 2026 02:26:19 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

As the New START treaty between the US and Russia approaches its expiration, fears of a new nuclear arms race loom large, with historical treaties disappearing and tensions rising.

The New START treaty, which limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads by the US and Russia, is set to expire soon, raising fears of a new arms race and diminishing arms control. The treaty's end marks the collapse of vital arms control cooperation established during the Cold War, with global implications for security.

The last nuclear weapons control treaty between the US and Russia is due to expire on Thursday, raising fears of a new arms race.

The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as New START and signed in 2010, was one of a handful of agreements designed to help prevent a catastrophic nuclear war.

The treaty capped the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads for each party to 1,550. It also established some transparency including data transfer, notifications, and on-site inspections.

The treaty's expiry effectively marks an end to the arms control cooperation between Washington and Moscow that helped bring an end to the Cold War.

On Wednesday, Pope Leo urged the US and Russia to renew the treaty, saying the current world situation required calls for doing everything possible to avert a new arms race.

The original START treaty, signed in 1991 by the US and the Soviet Union, barred each of the two signatories from deploying more than 6,000 nuclear warheads.

It was succeeded by New START, signed in 2010 in Prague by the US and Russia, the successor state to the dissolved Soviet Union.

Despite a technical suspension three years ago, both countries were still thought to be abiding by the treaty, which prevented the uncontrolled build-up of nuclear weapons and provided transparency measures to avoid misjudging each other's intentions.

The expiration of New START follows a worrying pattern, as other long-standing arms control treaties have already fallen by the wayside. These include agreements like the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Agreement, which eliminated the deployment of shorter-range nuclear weapons within Europe, and the Open Skies Treaty, allowing reconnaissance flights over each other's territories.

As tensions rise, former military leaders and experts warn that the frameworks keeping global peace are at risk of unraveling. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin highlighted the collapse of key treaties as a dangerous aspect of current global security.

In the face of these challenges, Dmitry Medvedev, who signed the New START treaty, has described its expiration as alarming. Meanwhile, some leaders downplay the urgency of renewal, believing that future treaties should also include other nuclear powers like China, France, and the UK.

Darya Dolzikova from the UK’s RUSI points out the concerning trend of both countries modernizing their nuclear capabilities, indicating an arms race is potentially already underway.

As global nuclear tensions escalate, the future of nuclear arms control remains uncertain, signaling a more volatile and dangerous geopolitical landscape.