Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has declared that the UK will recognize a Palestinian state in September, contingent on Israel's agreement to specific conditions including a ceasefire in Gaza and the revival of a two-state solution. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed outrage over this potential recognition, arguing that it rewards "Hamas's monstrous terrorism." The underlying question is what such recognition would entail and how it would affect the current geopolitical landscape.
Palestine's existence as a recognized state is complex; it enjoys a level of international recognition with diplomatic opportunities and participation in international sports, yet it lacks defined borders, a capital, and military sovereignty. The Palestinian Authority, formed from 1990s peace agreements, struggles with limited control over territories due to Israel's military oversight in the West Bank and ongoing conflict in Gaza. Hence, recognition may serve more as a symbolic gesture rather than an immediate practical change.
The UK’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy emphasized that Britain's historical obligations include supporting a two-state solution, a commitment that dates back to the 1917 Balfour Declaration. This agreement endorsed the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine but did not adequately address the rights of the non-Jewish populations. Despite Israel’s establishment in 1948, the envisioned Palestinian state has faced numerous challenges, largely due to Israeli colonization efforts in the West Bank.
Currently, 147 of the 193 UN member states recognize the State of Palestine, and its status as a permanent observer state allows participation in UN discussions without voting rights. Following the UK's potential recognition, France also intends to follow suit, positioning Palestine to receive allied support from four of five UN Security Council permanent members—excluding the United States.
Historically, British governments have maintained that recognizing a Palestinian state should occur as part of a broader peace process. However, recent evidence of humanitarian crisis in Gaza and rising domestic pressures have prompted a shift in strategy. Notably, calls from various MPs have intensified, with many urging immediate recognition to address the current deteriorating situation in Palestinian territories.
The UK's recognition will not come without strings; it is conditioned upon Israeli actions towards alleviating suffering in Gaza and committing to peace negotiations aimed at a two-state solution. Observers note that the likelihood of such Israeli actions in the near term is slim, given Netanyahu's stated opposition to Palestinian statehood.
Starmer's declaration may signify a pivotal moment in UK foreign policy, echoing historical commitments while reflecting current realities. However, the long-term impact of this recognition remains uncertain, as it will evolve amidst complex diplomatic engagements and regional tensions.
