On a sparkling autumn day in Beijing, the People's Liberation Army showcased its advanced military capabilities, drawing the world's attention with the unveiling of its DF-17 hypersonic missiles during the National Day parade on October 1, 2019. Each missile, measuring 11 meters and weighing 15 tons, exemplifies China's significant stride in hypersonic technology. Capable of traveling at over five times the speed of sound, these weapons have the potential to redefine global military strategies and tactics.
Experts highlight a growing concern that China's advancements in this area signify a considerable threat to international security dynamics. William Freer, a national security fellow, notes the tension rising among state actors reminiscent of Cold War anxieties. China leads the hypersonic missile race, with Russia following closely, while the US is striving to catch up, and the UK currently lacks any such defense capabilities.
The impetus behind China's and Russia's progress can largely be attributed to substantial investments made in these technologies over the past several years. During the early 2000s, Western nations concentrated their military efforts on counter-terrorism and insurgency operations, inadequately addressing the potential threat of advanced militarization from China and Russia. As highlighted by Sir Alex Younger, former head of the British intelligence service, this oversight has become painfully apparent.
The hypersonic arms race has extended beyond China and Russia, with countries like Iran, North Korea, and Israel also making advancements in hypersonic technology. The implications of these developments are alarming, especially considering the speed and maneuverability of such weapons. The Russian Avangard missile, for instance, boasts an impressive speed of Mach 27, while hypersonic missile systems are notoriously difficult to detect and intercept due to their erratic flight paths.
The launch of America's "Dark Eagle" hypersonic weapon marks the U.S.'s commitment to advancing its capabilities in response to these emerging threats. Nevertheless, the challenges persist, as many defense officials have expressed concern about the current inadequacies of terrestrial and space-based sensor systems to effectively track hypersonic missiles.
In light of these advancements, the risk of miscalculation and rapid escalation in conflicts is more perilous than ever. Experts grapple with a critical dilemma: distinguishing between nuclear and conventional attacks in real-time. Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy Commander, emphasized how hypersonic technologies have not entirely transformed the nature of warfare but have drastically compressed the timelines for response.
At the same time, there are arguments suggesting that much of the hype surrounding hypersonic weapons could be overstated. Some experts maintain that while these missiles present novel challenges, they are not insurmountable. Defensive measures, such as advanced tracking systems, can evolve to address these threats effectively.
As the technological race persists, Western powers are initiating collaborations, like the UK’s recent tests of hypersonic propulsion systems in partnership with the American government, marking a significant milestone in their effort to develop similar capabilities.
However, as nations navigate this unpredictable battleground of hypersonic weapons, the essential balance of deterrence—combining both offensive and defensive measures—will remain paramount in preventing potential conflicts and ensuring global security. The race is just beginning, and while advancements pose threats, they equally offer opportunities for innovative responses in modern warfare scenarios.
