For several weeks, Israel has been conducting covert discussions with the Syrian government in an attempt to find a diplomatic solution to the long-standing conflicts rooted in territorial disputes from the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. The atmosphere surrounding these talks has been imbued with optimism from Israeli media, speculating on a potential non-aggression agreement, or even a pioneering peace treaty between Israel and the Syrian regime.

However, Israel's military actions this week, notably airstrikes that targeted Syrian government forces and key infrastructure in Damascus, reveal a jarring contradiction to these hopeful sentiments. Analysts are beginning to critique the premature nature of such optimistic forecasts in light of the volatile geopolitical landscape. As Israel grapples with the aftermath of a surprise attack by Hamas in October 2023 while having achieved recent successes against Hezbollah and Iranian forces, it appears to be resorting to military strength as a preferred response to perceived threats, potentially undermining diplomatic progress.

“It seems very discordant,” remarked Itamar Rabinovich, an expert on Israeli-Syrian relations and veteran negotiator of the 1990s talks. He expresses concern that aggressive military actions do not align with the ongoing negotiations aimed at resolving disputes.

The recent Israeli strikes are part of a broader military doctrine emerging in response to the chaotic aftermath of 2023. This doctrine is described as a mix of heightened fears and newfound confidence influenced by past military victories. Recent engagements were prompted by the Syrian government's decision to mobilize forces to quell escalating conflicts between different local groups in southwest Syria.

Despite the evident weakening of Syria's military capabilities due to extensive damage from previous military operations, the government managed to dispatch a contingent of outdated tanks and troops to address the situation. This development further accentuates the complexities of achieving lasting peace and stability in the region as both diplomatic channels and military actions continue to unfold simultaneously.