Poland's presidential election has reached a nail-biting climax, with liberal Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski claiming victory based on an exit poll that shows him slightly ahead with 50.3% compared to conservative historian Karol Nawrocki at 49.7%. However, the tight margin falls within the poll’s 3% margin of error, intensifying the uncertainty surrounding the official results set to be released on Monday morning.
Addressing a gathering of jubilant supporters in Warsaw, Trzaskowski declared, "We won," but acknowledged the significance of the narrow victory, humorously noting that "razor's edge" will become a common phrase in Polish politics. His wife, Malgorzata, added some comic relief to the emotional evening saying she was "close to having a heart attack."
Despite Trzaskowski’s celebration, Nawrocki urged his supporters to remain hopeful, asserting, "Let's not lose hope for this night. We will win during the night; the difference is minimal." He expressed confidence in waking up as President Karol Nawrocki.
The office of the President in Poland is largely ceremonial, having limited influence over foreign policy and defense. However, the president holds veto power over legislation, which plays a crucial role in the current political landscape. The sitting conservative president, Andrzej Duda, used this power to hinder Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s campaign promises, including judicial reforms and liberalizing abortion laws.
Should Trzaskowski's victory be confirmed, it could facilitate Tusk's efforts to strengthen Poland’s role within the European Union. Nevertheless, Tusk's coalition may face challenges from within, particularly from the conservative Peoples' Party over issues like abortion rights and same-sex partnerships.
A Nawrocki win would sustain tensions between the presidency and the government, potentially re-energizing the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, which aims to reclaim parliamentary power in the next elections.
While both candidates pledge continued support for Ukraine, they diverge in their positioning regarding NATO and EU membership. Trzaskowski, a former Europe minister, champions an EU-aligned Poland, whereas Nawrocki is more cautious about ceding powers to Brussels.
Nawrocki entered the election as a relatively unknown figure but has utilized his personal brand, including a focus on sports and a pro-national narrative, to connect with voters. However, his campaign faced scandals questioning his character and past, while accusations of him being associated with unsavory activities have surfaced, which he denies vehemently.
Despite the controversies, support for Nawrocki persists, particularly among constituents who dismissed media allegations as politically motivated. As Poland holds its breath for the final count, the fate of its presidency hangs in the balance, drawing national and international attention.
