The Palestinian death toll from the ongoing conflict in Gaza may be far greater than previously reported by the Hamas-run health ministry, a study published in The Lancet indicates. The research, led by a UK team, analyzed data from the first nine months following the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. It combined official death records with an online survey of family members and obituaries to arrive at its findings.
The study estimates that, as of June 30, 2024, approximately 64,260 Palestinians have died due to traumatic injuries, suggesting a considerable under-reporting of around 41% compared to the health ministry's figures. The ministry's statistics do not differentiate between combatants and civilians, although recent UN reports assert that the majority of verified casualties have been women and children.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have countered these claims, asserting that they have "eliminated over 17,000 terrorists," although they have not provided clarity on how that figure was calculated. The IDF maintains that its operations focus on combatants while attempting to limit civilian casualties.
Difficulties in verifying facts from Gaza have been exacerbated by Israel's restriction of access for international journalists, including those from the BBC. The researchers utilized a "capture-recapture" statistical method to assess fatalities, examining how many individuals appeared across multiple death count efforts. The level of overlap between these lists suggests that the real number of deaths could indeed be significantly higher than what's officially reported.
With updated daily casualty figures released by Gaza's health ministry, the report in The Lancet provides an estimated death toll ranging from 55,298 to 78,525, far exceeding the 37,877 fatalities claimed by the health ministry. The authors note that discrepancies in classification — particularly in defining "traumatic injury" — could lead to varying estimates in their findings.
The research revealed that 59% of the deceased, whose sex and age data were available, were women, children, or the elderly. The escalations in Gaza were sparked by a Hamas assault that resulted in approximately 1,200 Israeli deaths and the abduction of 251 individuals as hostages. In retaliation, Israel initiated a large-scale military operation in Gaza, during which the health ministry claims that 46,006 individuals, mostly civilians, have died as a result of the Israeli campaign.
This ongoing conflict continues to raise significant humanitarian and ethical concerns as both sides grapple with the casualties resulting from their actions.
The study estimates that, as of June 30, 2024, approximately 64,260 Palestinians have died due to traumatic injuries, suggesting a considerable under-reporting of around 41% compared to the health ministry's figures. The ministry's statistics do not differentiate between combatants and civilians, although recent UN reports assert that the majority of verified casualties have been women and children.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have countered these claims, asserting that they have "eliminated over 17,000 terrorists," although they have not provided clarity on how that figure was calculated. The IDF maintains that its operations focus on combatants while attempting to limit civilian casualties.
Difficulties in verifying facts from Gaza have been exacerbated by Israel's restriction of access for international journalists, including those from the BBC. The researchers utilized a "capture-recapture" statistical method to assess fatalities, examining how many individuals appeared across multiple death count efforts. The level of overlap between these lists suggests that the real number of deaths could indeed be significantly higher than what's officially reported.
With updated daily casualty figures released by Gaza's health ministry, the report in The Lancet provides an estimated death toll ranging from 55,298 to 78,525, far exceeding the 37,877 fatalities claimed by the health ministry. The authors note that discrepancies in classification — particularly in defining "traumatic injury" — could lead to varying estimates in their findings.
The research revealed that 59% of the deceased, whose sex and age data were available, were women, children, or the elderly. The escalations in Gaza were sparked by a Hamas assault that resulted in approximately 1,200 Israeli deaths and the abduction of 251 individuals as hostages. In retaliation, Israel initiated a large-scale military operation in Gaza, during which the health ministry claims that 46,006 individuals, mostly civilians, have died as a result of the Israeli campaign.
This ongoing conflict continues to raise significant humanitarian and ethical concerns as both sides grapple with the casualties resulting from their actions.
