PARIS (AP) — France risks losing its third prime minister in 12 months on Monday, with incumbent François Bayrou facing a parliamentary confidence vote that he called but is widely expected to lose, heralding more instability for the European Union’s second-largest economy.
The 74-year-old centrist prime minister, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron just under nine months ago, is gambling that the vote will unite lawmakers in the sharply divided National Assembly behind proposed public spending cuts that Bayrou argues are needed to rein in France’s spiraling state deficit and debts.
But opposition lawmakers are vowing to instead use the opportunity to topple Bayrou and his minority government of centrist and right-wing ministers, an upheaval that would force Macron to begin what could be another arduous hunt for a replacement.
A key vote
The National Assembly of 577 lawmakers is interrupting its summer recess for the extraordinary session that Bayrou requested, starting at 3 p.m. (1300 GMT; 0900 EDT) Monday.
After Bayrou delivers a speech arguing that belt-tightening is in the national interest, lawmakers will express their opinions prior to casting their votes. Bayrou needs a majority of “for” votes to survive; if a majority votes against, France’s constitution decrees that he must submit his government’s resignation to Macron, plunging France into renewed crisis.
Musical chairs
The president is paying a steep price for his stunning decision to dissolve the National Assembly, aimed at strengthening his pro-European centrist alliance in parliament’s lower house. But the gamble backfired, leading to a splintered legislature without a dominant political bloc for the first time in France’s modern republic.
This political uncertainty has largely hindered Macron’s domestic ambitions during his second and last presidential term, which ends in 2027. Lacking a workable majority in parliament, Macron has rotated through three prime ministers, attempting to build consensus and stave off government collapse.
Macron's protégé Gabriel Attal left in September after just eight months, succeeded briefly by former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, who became the shortest-serving prime minister after a no-confidence vote in December.
Bayrou’s frustration
Far-right and left-wing lawmakers opposing Bayrou hold over 320 seats compared to the centrists' 210, making survival increasingly unlikely for the prime minister.
Bayrou expressed frustration at the unified opposition in a recent interview with online outlet Brut: What’s the point of bringing down the government? These are political groups that not only don’t agree on anything but are waging open civil war against each other.
Pressing problems for France
If Bayrou loses, Macron will face the challenge of finding a successor to confront similar budget problems that have plagued previous administrations. Macron has vowed to remain in office until the end of his term but risks becoming ineffective if political paralysis prevails.
Under the French political system, the prime minister is appointed by the president, accountable to the parliament, and responsible for domestic policy. The president exercises substantial powers over foreign policy and is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
Bayrou argues that significant cuts are critical to repairing public finances, proposing to cut 44 billion euros ($51 billion) in spending in 2026, as France’s deficit last year stood at 5.8% of GDP, significantly exceeding the EU target of 3%.
France's significant public debt, at 3.346 trillion euros or 114% of GDP, also poses ongoing economic challenges.
Bayrou’s plan, which includes removing two public holidays, has faced strong criticism from political rivals who hope to leverage the current situation to their advantage.
