Japan's Ruling Coalition Faces Major Setback in Recent Elections

Mon Oct 20 2025 16:07:21 GMT+0300 (Eastern European Summer Time)

Exit polls indicate a significant loss for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government, raising concerns about his political future.

In the wake of rising public dissatisfaction, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party may lose control in a tightly contested election, creating uncertainty for national leadership.

Exit polls have revealed troubling news for Japan's ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, as they appear poised to lose their majority following a high-stakes election. This electoral round has witnessed a wave of voter discontent mainly attributed to heightened living costs and the looming threat of tariffs from the United States.

According to preliminary findings from NHK, the public broadcaster of Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior ally Komeito are in jeopardy of not securing the necessary 50 seats in the 248-seat upper house essential for maintaining legislative control. Estimates suggest they may only gain between 32 and 51 seats, projecting significant political strains for Ishiba, with analysts indicating that achieving fewer than 46 seats would mark the coalition's worst performance since its inception in 1999.

The coalition faced backlash for failing to effectively address pervasive economic challenges, including rising inflation—especially concerning staple goods like rice—as well as ongoing political scandals that have marred the LDP's reputation. Should the coalition sustain significant losses, it could lead to a stark shift in the landscape of Japanese politics and force Ishiba to step down within months, following a historical precedent where previous premiers resigned after similar electoral setbacks.

This election presented some unexpected competition from the smaller, right-wing Sanseito party, known for its exclusionary "Japanese First" stance. Their appeal surged during the pandemic through social media, gaining traction with their anti-immigration narratives while exploiting public sentiment regarding economic pressures from increasing foreign tourism and resident populations.

As the votes are still being tallied, the outcome could significantly affect the policymaking environment, potentially prompting shifts in leadership dynamics within the LDP and raising speculations about candidates like Sanae Takaichi, Takayuki Kobayashi, and Shinjiro Koizumi vying for a leadership opportunity. Moving forward, any leadership changes may trigger a period of political turbulence just as Japan navigates critical trade negotiations with the United States.