In a startling revelation, scientists have announced that levels of carbon dioxide (CO2)—the principal greenhouse gas contributing to climate change—rose at an unprecedented rate in 2024, casting doubt on the feasibility of meeting crucial climate goals. The surge in CO2 concentrations is now over 50% greater than before the widespread use of fossil fuels began.
Record-high emissions from fossil fuels contributed to this rapid increase, while natural carbon sinks struggled to absorb CO2 due to exacerbating wildfires and droughts. Scientists from the Met Office warn that the increasing CO2 levels are incompatible with international efforts aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, an ambitious target set by nearly 200 countries during the Paris Agreement in 2015.
The year 2024 has officially been confirmed as the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures surpassing the 1.5C threshold for the first time. Although this does not invalidate the Paris goal, constant rises in atmospheric CO2 reinforce the urgency to take decisive action. Richard Betts from the Met Office pointed out that “Limiting global warming to 1.5C would require the CO2 rise to be slowing, but the opposite is happening.”
As human activity—mainly the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation—continues to drive CO2 levels higher, records taken from ice cores reveal that these concentrations are at their peak in over two million years. Notably, preliminary data indicates that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels hit record highs last year, with the effects of the natural El Niño phenomenon compounding the situation.
With an increase of nearly 3.6 parts per million (ppm) from 2023 to 2024—bringing total atmospheric CO2 to over 424 ppm—this shift marks the largest annual increase recorded since measurements began at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa research station in 1958. Experts like Prof. Ralph Keeling from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography underline the urgent need for intervention, as the world enters uncharted territory regarding CO2 emissions.
Long-term concerns also mount surrounding the inability of natural carbon sinks, such as forests and ocean ecosystems, to continue absorbing CO2. Both the Arctic tundra and the Amazon rainforest have shown reduced effectiveness in this regard due to climate-induced challenges, including warming temperatures, drought, and deforestation. As such, scientists remain vigilant about these troubling trends.
While forecasts predict a less severe increase in CO2 levels for 2025 under the influence of cooler La Niña conditions, experts caution that the overarching trend of warming continues due to the persistent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As Prof. Betts rightly stated, “Warming will resume because CO2 is still building up in the atmosphere,” highlighting the imperative for immediate action in the face of evolving climate realities.
