Europe's tension with Azerbaijan has escalated, particularly after the recent 15-year prison sentence imposed on peace activist Bahruz Samadov for alleged treason. Friends of Samadov express their disappointment not only towards the Azerbaijani government but also towards the European Union (EU) for its tacit support of President Ilham Aliyev's administration.
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Azerbaijan has emerged as a pivotal partner for the EU aiming to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas. Aliyev has tightened his grip on power, intensifying his control over the Karabakh region and dismissing dissent through a crackdown on opposition figures and journalists. Despite calls from the European Parliament to sanction Baku, high-ranking EU officials have refrained from overtly criticizing Azerbaijan.
EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas recently visited Baku and received criticism for highlighting the potential for EU-Azerbaijan relations while journalists faced suppression. Aliyev justifies media crackdowns under the guise of protecting against foreign influence, complicating the EU's stance, which has called for releasing arbitrarily detained individuals.
Although Azerbaijan contributes only a small fraction (4.3%) to the EU's gas imports, the proportion rises significantly in countries reliant on the Southern Gas Corridor pipeline. Bulgaria sources 40% of its gas from Azerbaijan, creating a patchwork of interests within the EU and making it challenging to form a cohesive approach to Baku, as noted by a senior EU diplomat.
Despite a decent energy partnership, the EU remains concerned about Azerbaijan's human rights abuses. Aliyev leverages relations with the West by asserting support for Ukraine amidst Russian aggression, a move that boosts his standing among European nations, even as he maintains a complicated relationship with Moscow.
Experts suggest that Azerbaijan skillfully navigates diplomatic relations, capitalizing on Europe's divided priorities. As Azerbaijan continues to silence dissenting voices, the EU's response to issues like Samadov's imprisonment remains a critical test of its commitment to human rights alongside its energy strategy.
