When insurgents finally gained control of the town of Kyaukme—on the main trade route from the Chinese border to the rest of Myanmar—it was after several months of hard fighting last year.
Kyaukme straddles Asian Highway 14, more famous as the Burma Road during World War Two, and its capture by the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) was considered a pivotal victory for the opposition. It suggested that the morale of the military junta after seizing power in 2021 was crumbling.
This month, however, it took just three weeks for the military to recapture Kyaukme. The fluctuating fate of this little hill town starkly illustrates how far the military balance in Myanmar has shifted in favor of the junta.
Kyakme has paid a heavy price. Large parts of the town have been flattened by daily air strikes while in TNLA hands. Air force jets dropped 500-pound bombs, and artillery with drones targeted insurgent positions outside the town. Many residents fled but are starting to return now that the military has retaken control.
“There is heavy fighting going on every day, in Kyaukme and Hsipaw,” said Tar Parn La, a spokesman for the TNLA. “This year the military has more soldiers, more heavy weapons, and more air power. We are trying our best to defend Hsipaw.”
Since then, the junta has also retaken Hsipaw, restoring its control over the road to the Chinese border. These towns fell mostly because China has thrown its weight behind the junta, backing its plan for a December election widely condemned for excluding Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party.
The military is joining efforts to regain lost territory to ensure elections can take place in those areas, enjoying more success this year due to lessons learned from past failures and access to newer military technology. It has responded to early opposition advantages using inexpensive drones by acquiring thousands of its own from China and training its units in their use with deadly effect.
The junta is also deploying motorized paragliders that drop bombs with remarkable accuracy, along with intensified air strikes that have caused higher numbers of civilian casualties this year. At least a thousand are estimated to have been killed this year alone.
On the other hand, fragmented opposition forces face inherent weaknesses. They consist of poorly armed people’s defense forces (PDFs), often formed by local villagers or young activists who fled cities, alongside seasoned ethnic fighters with their agendas and mistrust towards the central government.
In April, facing increased Chinese pressure, another group in the Brotherhood Alliance decided to cease fighting. The military’s recent resurgence can be attributed to forced conscription that replenished its ranks and the advantageous capabilities brought by drones, which have significantly turned the tide of the battle.
Although some parts of Myanmar remain under effective resistance control, the junta’s concentrated efforts on strategically vital areas indicate its intent to consolidate power and maintain electoral legitimacy amidst ongoing civil strife.
