Paris court’s upcoming verdict will decide whether Marine Le Pen can run in France’s 2026 presidential election.
The National Rally (RN) has drawn support from the far‑right, and polls suggest Le Pen could beat the conventional candidates. But a previous trial found her guilty of misusing European Parliament funds, sentencing her to two years in prison at home and five years of ineligibility for public office.
If the appellate court upholds the five‑year ban, Le Pen’s presidential campaign will be abruptly halted. The RN could shift to 30‑year‑old Jordan Bardella, who would inherit Le Pen’s front‑bench position but who faces challenges of experience and public recognition.
Alternatively, a lesser penalty—such as a two‑year ineligibility—might allow Le Pen to stand, provided she can resume campaigning before the 18 April first round.
Legal experts note the uncertainty of the court’s decision, citing the possibility of intermediate sentences and the role of the Cour de Cassation. A conviction that allows Le Pen to run could prompt her to appeal, potentially reopening the ineligibility debate in early 2027.
While Le Pen attempts to maintain her political momentum, her visibility is already shifting. In an interview before the verdict, she expressed resignation but continued her commitment to her platform. Whether she stays or passes the torch to Bardella will reshape France’s nationalist movement’s trajectory.
