In late 2023, as Magnus Mæland took office as the mayor of a small northern Norwegian town, China’s ambitions in the Arctic soon became evident. With three separate delegations visiting him, Mæland highlighted that China aims to position itself as a polar superpower in this contested territory. Despite not being an Arctic nation, China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state," seeking to invest in infrastructure and secure a long-term foothold in the region.

The increasing urgency to claim territory in the Arctic arises from rapid climate change, with the region warming at four times the global average, reshaping ecosystems and local communities. This transformation is revealing a wealth of untapped natural resources such as critical minerals, oil, and gas—about 30% of the world’s undiscovered natural gas is in the Arctic. Moreover, the melting ice creates new maritime trade routes, offering significant advantages for shipping between Asia and Europe.

In response to this emerging competition, Norway’s Kirkenes sees an opportunity to evolve from a ghost town to a key European port for Asian cargo ships. The port director, Terje Jørgensen, envisions establishing a trans-shipment hub while simultaneously expressing concern over excessive foreign influence.

While China’s presence is expanding, European nations are increasingly hesitant to allow significant Chinese investments. Efforts by China to purchase infrastructure in Norway and Sweden have encountered resistance, creating a strategic partnership between China and Russia, which controls half of the Arctic coastline. Recent military maneuvers suggest closer ties between the two nations, including joint coastguard operations in the Arctic.

The shadow of Russia looms heavily over Kirkenes, a town that has seen a decline in cross-border trade and Russian tourism due to geopolitical tensions. Locals are increasingly aware of military activities on the Kola Peninsula, which houses Russia's nuclear forces.

Amid this backdrop of rising military engagement, the Arctic is witnessing a shift towards a more nationalistic atmosphere. Svalbard, a key Arctic territory governed by international treaty, shows signs of increased sovereignty sentiments among its Norwegian population against the backdrop of rising tensions following the invasion of Ukraine.

Indigenous communities in the Arctic, particularly in Russia, feel increasingly sidelined amidst the resource scramble. Activists voice concerns over what they describe as “green colonialism,” fearing their ancestral lands may be exploited under the guise of climate action.

The Arctic, once a canvas for international cooperation, has become a battleground for national interests, with the risks of conflict rising as power dynamics shift.