Iran is 10 days into one of the most extreme internet shutdowns in history, with 92 million citizens cut off from all internet services and even disruption to phone and text messaging.
The Iranian government cut off services on 8 January, apparently to stifle dissent and prevent international scrutiny of a government crack down on protesters.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the internet was cut off in response to what he described as externally directed 'terrorist operations'.
The government has not said when internet services will return, but new reports suggest that, behind the scenes, the authorities may be making plans to restrict it permanently.
On 15 January, the news website IranWire reported that government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told journalists that international web access will not be available until at least the Iranian New Year in late March.
Internet freedom observers at FilterWatch believe the government is hastily implementing new systems and rules to cut Iran off from the international internet.
'There should be no expectation of reopening international internet access, and even afterwards, users' access to international internet will never return to its previous form,' FilterWatch said, citing unnamed government sources.
While the BBC cannot independently verify this report or the timing of its implementation, journalists who spoke to BBC Persian also said they were told that internet access would not be restored anytime soon.
From temporary outage to 'communication black hole'
Iran has maintained a tight grip over the internet for many years, with most western social media apps and platforms blocked, as well as external news websites like BBC News.
However many people have managed to access popular apps such as Instagram using Virtual Private Networks (VPNs).
Internet freedom campaigners at Access Now say Iran has consistently used shutdowns as a way to mask mass violence and brutal crackdowns on protesters, as seen during the nationwide internet shutdowns during the November 2019 and September 2022 protests.
As of 18 January, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) estimates that more than 3,300 confirmed protester deaths have been recorded, with more than 4,380 cases under review. It also reports that the number of arrests has reached 24,266 across 187 cities.
The real number of people killed and detained is believed to be significantly higher, but the lack of access means the figures cannot be independently verified.
Where is internet in Iran heading?
If the reports are accurate, it seems that Iran is planning to a quasi combination of permanent Chinese and Russian internet control.
'In Iran there seems to be a move to isolate everyone from any electronic access, unless approved by the government,' said computer security expert Prof Alan Woodward from Surrey University in the UK, after reviewing the reports of Iran's plans.
Amir Rashidi says the question is no longer technical, but political - arguing that whether such systems are fully implemented now depends on political will.
