Beijing is not always the most welcoming place in winter.

Frigid air blows in from the north, blast-freezing the city's lakes and rivers. Yet, in the last two months, leaders from around the world have accepted invitations to the Chinese capital. This includes recent visits from France, South Korea, and Canada, highlighting a season of renewed engagement.

Now, among the Western leaders making a beeline to Beijing is Sir Keir Starmer, the first British Prime Minister to visit China in eight years. He is expected to receive a warm welcome, particularly after the UK approved plans for a Chinese mega-embassy in London. Additionally, officials had already hinted that the announcement of Starmer's visit would come after resolving this matter.

Both sides appear eager to engage in discussions, with numerous deals available to enhance the UK's economy. Dr. Yu Jie from Chatham House remarks, 'If the two sides could move ahead with a reasonable trading relationship, that is already an achievement.'

The significance of Starmer’s arrival is multifaceted, particularly against the backdrop of a shifting geopolitical landscape. For China, the visits of leaders like Starmer, who frame Beijing as a dependable partner, capitalize on a strategy that contrasts with the US's more erratic foreign policy.

Historically, UK-China relations have experienced significant fluctuations, moving from a 'golden age' to what Starmer now describes as an 'ice age.' While this visit could signal the beginning of a gradual thaw, the dynamics of the relationship remain complex. Starmer’s refusal to choose between the US and China illustrates the delicate balance he aims to maintain.

Chinese analysts remain skeptical, voicing concerns regarding Starmer's stability and potential longevity in office amidst domestic political uncertainties. For many in China, the newfound momentum in diplomacy is refreshing, but whether it will lead to substantive improvement in relations remains to be seen.

Overall, Starmer's winter visit to China represents more than just bilateral engagement; it is an indication of potential economic collaboration against a backdrop of an increasingly competitive global economy.