France has been plunged into a new political crisis with the defeat of Prime Minister François Bayrou at a confidence vote in the National Assembly.
The defeat – by 364 votes to 194 – means that Bayrou will on Tuesday present his government's resignation to President Emmanuel Macron, who must now decide how to replace him. Macron's office said this would happen 'in the coming days.'
The options include naming a new prime minister from the centre-right; pivoting to the left and finding a name compatible with the Socialist Party; and dissolving parliament so new elections are held.
Macron's bitter enemies in the far-left France Unbowed party are calling for him personally to resign, but few commentators think it likely.
France is thus on its way to getting a fifth prime minister in less than two years - a dismal record that underscores the drift and disenchantment that have marked the president's second term.
Bayrou's fall came after he staked his government on an emergency confidence debate on the question of French debt.
He spent the summer warning of the 'existential' threat to France if it did not start to tackle its €3.4 trillion (£2.9 trillion) liability.
In a budget for 2026 he proposed to scrap two national holidays and freeze welfare payments and pensions, with the aim of saving €44 billion.
However, he was quickly disabused of any hope that his prophesies of financial doom would sway opponents. Party after party made quite clear they saw Monday's vote as an opportunity to settle accounts with Bayrou - and through him Macron.
Lacking any majority in the National Assembly, Bayrou saw the left and hard-right uniting against him - and his fate was sealed.
Some commentators have described Bayrou's fall as an act of political suicide. There was no need for him to call the early confidence vote, and he could have spent the coming months trying to build support.
In his speech beforehand, Bayrou made clear that he had his eyes set more on history rather than politics, telling MPs that it was future generations who would suffer if France lost its financial independence.
'Submission to debt is the same as submission to arms,' he argued, warning that current debt levels meant 'plunging young people into slavery.'
Despite his fervent warnings, there was little indication they had influenced parliament or the public perception in France, with rising discontent aimed at Macron's policies.
A movement called Bloquons Tout (Let's Block Everything) has promised a wave of sit-ins, boycotts, and protests against Macron's policies starting this Wednesday, with unions planning demonstrations scheduled for 18 September.
France faces a significant financial challenge ahead, with costs of servicing its debt projected to increase dramatically from €30 billion in 2020 to over €100 billion by 2030.
As the political landscape shifts, observers speculate that Macron might turn to appointing a left-leaning prime minister, although opposition parties starkly reject his pro-business policies and seek to undo recent reforms.
Ultimately, the future of France under Macron remains uncertain as the fallout from Bayrou's ousting reverberates throughout the nation's political spheres.
